Friday, January 11, 2013

GLAESER: Why government spending cuts won’t kill too many jobs. “[T]he U.S. is far enough along in its recovery that it can begin balancing its books. An impressive new series of papers has estimated the impact of public spending on jobs during the recession, and concluded that we can make moderate budget cuts without sending the economy into a tailspin…If we cut only $50 billion, this should mean 400,000 fewer jobs, and possibly less if the effect of public spending on employment is weaker today than it was during the recession. That's a serious loss, but if private-sector job creation continues at its current annual rate of 1.9 million a year, private-sector growth could offset that loss in less than three months.” Edward Glaeser in Bloomberg.

Doesn't the multiplier estimate job loss across the economy, including the private sector?  So if there are 400,000 fewer jobs, some of those will be lost in the private sector (federal contractors, for instance, or companies that had benefitted from cut government programs) and therefore the private sector won't be creating jobs at its current annual rate of 1.9 million

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Vermont: The Most Politically Interesting State

Add "Most Politically Interesting State" to Vermont's long list of accolades.  Among our many quirks: we are home to two-member State House districts, the only state capital without a McDonald's, and the only Socialist member of the U.S. Senate.  Our State House passed the first Marriage Equality law and the first Single-Payer Healthcare law in the Union.  Democrats usually run as candidates for both the Vermont Democratic Party and the Vermont Working Families Party.  In spite of our progressive reputation, we have a split ticket with a Democratic governor and a Republican lieutenant governor.  Our Lt Govs are in fact quite interesting: our current Lt Gov races stock cars at Thunder Road, and our previous Lt Gov is a commercial pilot.   Vermont also has a fairly prominent secessionist movement including the Second Vermont Republic and a Vermont Independence Party that convened in the State House (free of charge--it's the People's House afterall) this fall to celebrate Vermont independence from the "US Empire."  On the wonkier side of things, the newly elected state auditor recently got into a policy debate over a Livable Wage Ordinance (which he authored) with a young small business owner in the local foods industry--in the comments section of a local blog!  Even Bill McKibben chimed in on the thread to say, "I love Vermont."  And of course, "the Great State of Vermont will not apologize for its cheese!" 

Further Reading:
  • Five VT Towns vote to impeach Bush: http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-250_162-1381497.html
  • Fun Fact: The Almanac of American Politics says that our single U.S. Rep, Peter Welch, got married at the setting of the Stratford Inn in the show "Newhart."  While Welch did get married at the Norwich Inn, and Newhart is supposed to take place near Dartmouth, the external shots of the Inn are actually of the Waybury Inn in East Middlebury, Vermont.
  • Vermont was one of two states to go for Alf Landon over FDR in the 1936 Presidential Election, spawning the riff on Maine's hithertofore reputation as a Bellweather, "As Maine, so goes Vermont." 
  • Update: We got a shout out in Daily Kos!  "It's important to remember that the definition of a Some Dude operates on a sliding scale. If you're running for dogcatcher (an elected position in Duxbury, VT!), no one's a Some Dude."